Rules and Orders: The New U.S. Drone Procurement Regime｜规则与订单：美国无人机采购新范式
Independent research on structural shifts in energy, technology, and capital.
聚焦能源、技术与资本结构性变化的独立研究。
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
仅供信息参考，不应被视为投资建议。
Introduction｜引言
In early December 2025, the U.S. defence establishment appeared to release a strong, quantifiable demand-side signal. Public reporting described the launch of a “Drone Dominance Program (DDP)”, proposing to deploy approximately US$1 billion over an around two-year window to accelerate procurement and industrial scaling. Coverage also described a multi-phase challenge-and-selection mechanism intended to narrow the supplier pool while driving unit costs down, targeting low-cost, attritable, one-way attack drones at a scale of hundreds of thousands.
2025 年 12 月初，美国国防体系在“需求侧”似乎释放出强烈、可量化的采购信号。公开报道披露五角大楼启动“Drone Dominance Program（无人机优势计划，DDP）”，拟动用约 10 亿美元资金，在约两年窗口内推动采购与产业扩产，并以多阶段“挑战/筛选”机制推进供应商竞争、压降单价，目标规模达到数十万架量级的低成本、可消耗型（attritable）、一次性（one-way attack）无人机。
On 22 December 2025, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) added “foreign-made unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and critical components” to the FCC’s Covered List framework. As described in public coverage, this may tighten the pathway for approvals of new foreign-made drone models and key components unless specifically recommended by the Department of Defense (DoD) or the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Reporting also suggested that the measure does not automatically prohibit continued use or resale of models previously authorised.
随后，2025 年 12 月 22 日，美国联邦通信委员会（FCC）将“外国制造的无人机系统（UAS）及其关键零部件”纳入 FCC 的 Covered List（受管制清单）框架。公开报道显示，这一框架的关键影响可能在于：对新的外国制造无人机及关键零部件的审批/准入路径显著收紧，除非获得美国国防部（DoD）或国土安全部（DHS）的特定建议/认定；同时，该举措并不当然禁止此前已获授权型号的继续使用或转售。
Viewed together, the demand-side “order signal” and the supply-side “regulatory gate” may point towards a more structural shift: the world is moving rapidly into an era of dense unmanned-systems deployment, while the United States may be using both rules and orders to reshape compliance thresholds, cost curves, and scaled delivery capability within its domestic drone supply chain. For capital markets, the more durable research question is often less about a single product specification, and more about whether a company can enter a verifiable loop of order → delivery → repeat procurement under a new compliance and acquisition paradigm.
把“采购端的需求扩张信号”和“监管端的外部供给约束”并置来看，或可得到一个更接近结构性变化的判断：全球正加速进入无人系统密集应用的时代，而美国可能正在同时用规则与订单两只手，重塑本土无人机产业链的合规门槛、成本曲线与规模化交付能力。对资本市场而言，值得研究的不只是“某一款产品参数”，而是企业能否在新的合规与采购范式下，进入可验证的订单—交付—复购路径。
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