Rising Global Stagflation Risks Under Geopolitical Stress｜地缘冲突下全球滞涨风险的上升
Independent research on structural shifts in energy, technology, and capital.
聚焦能源、技术与资本结构性变化的独立研究。
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
仅供信息参考，不应被视为投资建议。
Introduction｜引言
The global economy is increasingly displaying characteristics that are not easily captured by a conventional cyclical slowdown. Instead, a more complex structure is emerging—one in which growth momentum weakens while inflation proves difficult to fully contain.
This combination, often described as stagflation (a coexistence of stagnant growth and persistent inflation), does not arise from a single shock. Rather, it reflects the interaction of monetary conditions, structural demand weakness, and, more recently, renewed geopolitical disruptions centred on energy supply.
当前全球经济正逐步呈现出一种难以用传统周期波动解释的状态：一方面增长动能减弱，另一方面通胀却难以完全回落。
这种被称为“滞胀”（即经济增长停滞与通货膨胀并存）的结构，并非由单一冲击所致，而是货币环境、需求结构以及近期以能源为核心的地缘冲突共同作用的结果。
I. From Monetary Expansion to Structural Fragility
从货币扩张到结构性脆弱
The origins of current vulnerabilities can be traced back to the unprecedented monetary expansion following the pandemic. Between 2020 and 2021, major central banks significantly expanded their balance sheets, while global debt levels rose sharply. The IMF projects global growth to moderate to around 3.1% in 2026, with downside risks persisting and inflation remaining above target in some major economies.
Such expansion does not dissipate automatically. Liquidity must be absorbed through asset prices or economic growth; otherwise, it may manifest as persistent inflationary pressure. At present, traditional absorption channels—such as property markets and investment cycles—have weakened in several major economies.
At the same time, the aggressive monetary tightening cycle that began in 2022 has already led to significantly higher global funding costs. Although the Federal Reserve has entered an initial easing phase, financial conditions remain relatively tight, with policy rates still elevated compared to historical norms and long-term yields staying at restrictive levels.
Moreover, the escalation of geopolitical tensions—particularly those affecting energy prices—may complicate or delay the pace of further easing, as renewed inflationary pressures could constrain policy flexibility. Under such conditions, the transmission of past tightening continues to weigh on growth, especially in interest-sensitive sectors.
当前经济脆弱性的根源，可以追溯至疫情后的大规模货币扩张。2020年至2021年间，各主要央行资产负债表迅速扩张，全球债务水平显著上升。国际货币基金组织预计，2026年全球经济增长约为3.1%，风险仍偏向下行，同时部分主要经济体通胀仍高于目标水平。
这种扩张并不会自动消失。货币必须通过资产价格或经济增长被“吸纳”，否则便可能转化为持续性的通胀压力。而当前的问题在于，房地产与投资等传统吸纳渠道在多个经济体中已明显减弱。
与此同时，自2022年开始的激进加息周期已经显著提高了全球资金成本。尽管美联储已进入初步降息阶段，但整体金融环境仍然偏紧，政策利率相较历史水平仍处高位，长期利率亦维持在较强约束区间。
此外，地缘冲突的升级，尤其是对能源价格的影响，可能对后续降息节奏形成扰动。若通胀因成本冲击再次抬升，政策空间将受到约束。在这种情况下，前期紧缩的滞后效应仍将持续对经济增长，特别是对利率敏感行业形成压力。
II. Energy as a Transmission Channel Rather Than a Single Cause
能源作为传导通道，而非单一决定因素
Against this backdrop, the escalation of conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has introduced a critical new variable: energy supply risk.
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most important chokepoints in the global energy system. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, more than one-fifth of global oil consumption and a significant share of LNG trade pass through this corridor. Disruptions, therefore, have systemic implications.
Recent developments suggest that markets are increasingly responding to both physical constraints and shifting expectations. Oil prices have risen significantly, at times exceeding USD 110 per barrel, while international institutions have warned that prolonged disruption could lead to higher prices alongside weaker growth.
It is important to emphasise that energy shocks act as an amplifier rather than a standalone determinant. Inflation and growth dynamics continue to be shaped by multiple variables, including monetary policy, fiscal conditions, labour markets, and demand structures.
在上述背景下，美以与伊朗冲突的升级引入了一个关键变量：能源供给风险。
霍尔木兹海峡是全球能源体系中的关键通道。美国能源信息署数据显示，全球约五分之一的石油消费以及相当比例的液化天然气贸易需经此通道运输，其稳定性具有系统性意义。
近期市场反应表明，价格变化既反映现实供给约束，也反映预期变化。国际油价一度升至每桶110美元以上，同时多家国际机构警告，若冲突持续，可能出现“价格上升与增长放缓并存”的局面。
需要强调的是，能源冲击更多是放大器，而非唯一决定因素。通胀与增长仍受货币政策、财政环境、劳动力市场及需求结构等多重变量共同影响。
III. Cost Transmission Across the Economic System
成本在经济体系中的传导
The significance of energy lies in its ability to transmit cost pressures across sectors. Rising fuel costs influence transportation, manufacturing, and agriculture, creating second-round effects.
Recent observations illustrate this process. In Europe, inflation rose from 1.9% in February to 2.5% in March 2026, with energy prices turning from contraction to positive growth. At the same time, industrial inputs such as fertilisers and chemicals have shown notable increases, with potential implications for broader price levels.
This layered transmission suggests that energy shocks may gradually influence wider inflation dynamics.
能源的重要性在于其对各行业成本的传导能力。燃料价格上升会影响运输、制造与农业，并形成二次效应。
近期欧洲已出现类似变化。欧元区通胀率从2月的1.9%上升至3月的2.5%，其中能源价格由负转正。同时，化肥、化工等工业中间品价格也出现明显上行，可能进一步影响整体物价水平。
这种多层级传导意味着，能源冲击可能逐步扩散至更广泛的通胀体系。
IV. Weak Growth and Inflation Pressures Interacting
增长疲弱与通胀压力的交织
These cost pressures are emerging at a time when global growth remains fragile. In Europe, growth expectations have been revised downward, with Germany’s 2026 growth forecast reduced to approximately 0.6%.
In China and parts of the emerging world, demand remains constrained, while in the United States, higher borrowing costs are gradually weighing on activity.
This interaction—rising costs alongside uncertain growth—indicates that the risk of a stagflationary environment is increasing.
这些成本压力出现时，全球增长本身已较为脆弱。欧洲增长预期持续下调，德国2026年经济增长预测已降至约0.6%。
中国及部分新兴市场需求仍然不足，而美国虽保持一定韧性，但高利率正逐步压制经济活动。
当成本上升与增长不稳同时出现时，全球经济向滞胀环境演化的风险正在上升。
V. Policy Constraints and Structural Implications
政策约束与结构性含义
Under normal conditions, policymakers can address inflation through tightening or support growth through easing. In the current environment, however, these tools involve trade-offs.
Further tightening may suppress inflation, but risks deepening the slowdown. Conversely, easing policy could support growth but may also reinforce inflationary pressures, particularly if energy costs remain elevated.
This constraint reduces policy flexibility and increases the likelihood of prolonged adjustment periods.
在正常周期中，政策可以通过加息抑制通胀，通过降息支持增长。但在当前环境下，这种选择存在明显权衡。
继续收紧可能压低通胀，但也会加剧经济放缓；而政策转向宽松，则可能在能源价格上行背景下强化通胀压力。
这种约束降低了政策灵活性，也意味着调整过程可能更为漫长。
Conclusion｜结语
The rise in global stagflation risk reflects the convergence of multiple structural forces rather than a single shock.
Geopolitical conflict centred on energy supply acts as an amplifier, transmitting cost pressures across sectors and interacting with existing vulnerabilities—high debt, constrained policy space, and uneven growth.
Under such conditions, the probability of the global economy evolving towards a stagflationary environment is increasing. Understanding these interactions is essential for interpreting macroeconomic trends.
全球滞胀风险的上升，是多重结构性因素叠加的结果，而非单一冲击。
以能源为核心的地缘冲突，更像是放大器，通过成本传导机制，与高债务、政策受限及增长不均衡等问题相互作用。
在这种背景下，全球经济向滞胀环境演化的概率正在上升。理解这些变量之间的联动关系，是把握宏观趋势的关键。
References
International Monetary Fund (2025), World Economic Outlook
U.S. Energy Information Administration (2025), Strait of Hormuz analysis
IMF Working Paper (2025), Energy Origins of Global Inflation
Associated Press (2026), Eurozone inflation data
ifo Institute (2026), German economic forecast
IMF-related reports on Middle East conflict and global growth