From Trade Governance to Industrial Control｜从贸易治理到产业控制
Independent research on structural shifts in energy, technology, and capital.
聚焦能源、技术与资本结构性变化的独立研究。
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
仅供信息参考，不应被视为投资建议。
Introduction | 引言
The Foreign Trade Law of the People’s Republic of China (2025 Revision) (hereinafter referred to as the “Foreign Trade Law”), together with the Provisions of the State Council on the Security of Industrial and Supply Chains (hereinafter referred to as the “Provisions”), marks a coordinated evolution in China’s policy framework governing economic security.
《中华人民共和国对外贸易法（2025修订）》（下文简称“《对外贸易法》”）与《国务院关于产业链供应链安全的规定》（下文简称“《规定》”）的出台，标志着中国经济安全治理框架的一次协同演进。
The revised Foreign Trade Law, originally enacted in 1994 and subsequently amended multiple times, represents a continuation and deepening of China’s external trade governance system. The latest revision was promulgated on December 27, 2025, and came into force on March 1, 2026, further refining mechanisms related to export control, trade regulation, and security review.
《对外贸易法》最初颁布于1994年，历经多次修订，本次修订是对中国对外贸易治理体系的延续与深化。最新版本于2025年12月27日发布，并于2026年3月1日实施，在出口管制、贸易监管及安全审查等方面进一步完善制度安排。
Shortly thereafter, the Provisions were promulgated and implemented on March 31, 2026, focusing on strengthening the resilience, security, and controllability of domestic industrial and supply chains.
随后，《规定》于2026年3月31日发布并实施，重点强化产业链供应链的韧性、安全性与可控性。
Taken together, these two policy instruments should not be viewed in isolation. Rather, they define a unified framework in which external regulatory boundaries and internal structural control are jointly reinforced.
从整体上看，这两项制度安排不应孤立理解，而是共同构建了一个统一框架：通过外部规则边界与内部结构控制的协同强化，重塑经济运行逻辑。
At a deeper level, this coordinated shift signals a redefinition of the objective function of economic policy: from efficiency-driven optimisation toward security-constrained allocation under uncertainty.
更深层来看，这一协同转向意味着经济政策目标函数的重构：从以效率为导向的优化，转向在不确定性约束下以安全为边界的资源配置。
I. A Dual Shift: Internal Resilience and External Regulation
双重转向：内部韧性与外部规则
If the objective function of economic policy is shifting, it must first manifest in how systems are structured.
如果经济政策的目标函数正在变化，那么这种变化必然首先体现在体系结构之中。
The Provisions operate internally, reinforcing the resilience and controllability of industrial chains. The Foreign Trade Law operates externally, redefining how cross-border flows are regulated under security considerations.
《规定》作用于内部结构，强化产业链的韧性与可控性；《对外贸易法》作用于外部边界，在安全约束下重新定义跨境流动规则。
Together, they reflect a coordinated adjustment:
not the abandonment of efficiency, but its subordination to security constraints.
两者体现的是一种协同调整：
并非放弃效率，而是使效率服从于安全约束。
II. Historical Context: A Pattern Seen Before
历史参照：重复出现的路径
Such a shift in the objective function is not unprecedented.
It has appeared whenever external uncertainty began to dominate economic risk.
这种目标函数的转变并非首次出现，
它往往出现在外部不确定性成为主要风险来源之时。
In the United States, the process unfolded over more than a decade. Post-2008 concerns about industrial hollowing-out evolved into reshoring policies in the early 2010s, and eventually into explicit security-oriented measures in the early 2020s, including export controls and the CHIPS Act.
在美国，这一过程持续了十余年。从2008年后的产业空心化反思，到2010年代初的制造业回流，再到2020年代初的出口管制与《芯片法案》，逐步完成从效率导向到安全导向的转变。
Japan’s earlier experience followed a similar trajectory, where rising external pressures led to renewed emphasis on maintaining control over high-value production and core technologies.
日本的路径同样类似，在外部压力上升的背景下，逐步强化对高附加值生产与核心技术的控制。
In each case, the underlying change was the same: efficiency remained relevant, but no longer sufficient.
在这些案例中，底层逻辑一致：效率仍然重要，但已不再充分。
III. What Has Changed Structurally
结构上发生了什么变化
When security becomes a binding constraint, the structure of economic activity must adjust accordingly.
当安全成为约束条件时，经济活动的结构必然随之调整。
The Provisions emphasise “self-sufficiency and controllability,” while the Foreign Trade Law strengthens “security review and regulatory mechanisms.” These are not independent goals, but expressions of the same shift.
《规定》强调“自主可控”，《对外贸易法》强化“安全审查与监管机制”，两者并非独立目标，而是同一转变的不同体现。
This implies that economic systems are no longer optimised solely for cost, but for stability under disruption.
这意味着经济体系不再仅以成本为优化目标，而是以在冲击下保持稳定为约束条件。
IV. From Policy to Structural Impact
从政策到结构影响
Once the objective function changes, resource allocation inevitably follows.
一旦目标函数改变，资源配置必然随之调整。
Capital begins to move not only toward efficiency, but toward resilience.
This results in a gradual reallocation toward sectors that enhance system stability.
资本不再只追逐效率，而开始流向能够提升系统稳定性的领域。
This includes:
critical upstream resources
core manufacturing capacity
key technological bottlenecks
包括：
上游关键资源
核心制造能力
关键技术环节
The process is gradual, but persistent, because it is driven by constraint rather than preference.
这一过程缓慢但持续，因为它由“约束”驱动，而非“选择”。
V. External Dimension: Trade as a Controlled Channel
外部维度：贸易作为受控通道
The Foreign Trade Law extends this structural adjustment to cross-border flows.
《对外贸易法》将这一结构性调整延伸至跨境流动。
Trade is no longer treated as a purely market-driven exchange, but as a channel subject to security alignment.
贸易不再仅是市场交换，而成为需要符合安全约束的通道。
This does not eliminate trade, but reshapes its direction and conditions.
这并不意味着贸易减少，而是改变其方向与条件。
In this sense, external openness becomes conditional rather than absolute.
从这一角度看，对外开放由“绝对开放”转变为“条件开放”。
VI. Time Horizon: Why This Becomes a Long-Term Variable
时间维度：为何这是长期变量
A change in constraints does not produce immediate outcomes.
It produces long-term trajectories.
约束条件的变化不会立即产生结果，
但会形成长期路径。
Historical evidence shows that transitions of this kind unfold over years, often decades.
历史经验表明，这类转变通常以多年甚至数十年为周期展开。
This is because capital adjustment, industrial restructuring, and technological substitution all require time.
这是因为资本调整、产业重构与技术替代本身都需要时间。
For markets, the key is not policy announcement, but constraint transformation.
对市场而言，关键不在政策本身，而在约束条件的变化。
The most important signal is therefore:
最重要的信号在于：
which sectors operate under strengthened constraints
and which sectors benefit from resolving those constraints哪些领域受到约束强化
哪些领域受益于解决这些约束
This distinction determines long-term capital flow.
这一差异决定长期资本流向。
Conclusion | 结语
The Provisions and the Foreign Trade Law together reflect more than regulatory adjustment. They signal a redefinition of how economic systems are organised.
《规定》与《对外贸易法》的结合，不只是制度调整，而是对经济组织方式的重新定义。