Beyond the List: America’s Drone Clampdown and Its Ripples ｜ 清单之外：美国收紧无人机准入的逻辑与涟漪
Independent research on structural shifts in energy, technology, and capital.
聚焦能源、技术与资本结构性变化的独立研究。
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
仅供信息参考，不应被视为投资建议。
22 December 2025 — the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) issued a public notice stating that, pursuant to a national-security-related determination made through U.S. Executive Branch mechanisms, “foreign-manufactured unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and their key components” are within the scope of the FCC’s Covered List (regulated list). The direct effect of this adjustment is that the relevant new equipment, as a general rule, will be unable to obtain new FCC equipment authorisation (with case-by-case determinations or waivers potentially available in specific circumstances), thereby materially increasing the compliance threshold for entering the U.S. market. At the same time, based on the FCC’s stated approach, this measure applies to new device models; it does not affect consumers’ continued use of drones that have already been lawfully purchased or obtained, nor does it prevent retailers from continuing to sell, import, or market device models that have previously received FCC authorisation.
2025年12月22日，美国联邦通信委员会（FCC）发布公告，根据其公告所述，由美国行政部门国家安全相关机制作出的决定，将“外国生产的无人机（UAS）及其关键零部件”纳入 FCC 的 Covered List（受管制清单）范围。该调整的直接影响是：相关新增设备原则上将无法获得新的 FCC 设备授权（在特定情况下可能存在个案认定或豁免），从而显著抬高其以合规方式进入美国市场的门槛；同时，按 FCC 公告口径，该举措适用于新设备型号，并不影响消费者继续使用此前已依法购买或取得的无人机，也不阻止零售商继续销售、进口或营销此前已获 FCC 授权的既有设备型号。
The announcement prompted extensive market discussion. In practice, Chinese drone companies have long remained a focal point of U.S. regulatory scrutiny and policy debate. The strength and timing of this latest tightening may reflect a combination of considerations spanning national security, supply-chain security, and domestic industrial policy (the analysis below is inferential), and may, in turn, have structural implications for the relevant supply chains and capital-market expectations.
消息公布后引发市场热议。事实上，中国无人机企业长期处于美国监管与政策讨论的焦点之中。本次政策收紧的力度与节奏，可能体现出国家安全、供应链安全与本土产业政策等多重因素的叠加（以下为分析推断），并可能对相关产业链与资本市场预期产生结构性影响。
A drone, by definition, is an “unmanned aircraft”. By airframe/platform type, drones can be broadly grouped into four categories: fixed-wing drones, multirotor drones, fixed-wing VTOL (vertical take-off and landing) drones, and unmanned helicopters. Each platform has distinct trade-offs across speed, range, payload, and take-off/landing requirements. For example, fixed-wing platforms typically outperform multirotors on speed and range, but generally require more demanding launch and recovery conditions.
无人机，顾名思义是“无人驾驶航空器”。从空中平台形态看，无人机可大致分为四类：固定翼无人机、多旋翼无人机、垂直起降固定翼无人机和无人直升机。不同平台在航速、航程、载荷、起降条件等方面各有优劣。例如，在航速与航程方面，固定翼通常优于多旋翼，但对起降场地与使用条件要求也更高。
By application, drones can be divided into civilian and military uses. Civilian drones can be further split into consumer-grade and industrial-grade segments, with applications including agricultural monitoring, meteorological sensing, aerial imaging, emergency response, and inspection. Military drones can be used for training targets, reconnaissance, fire-direction support, and strike missions. Notably, the same civilian platform may become “militarised” under specific modifications or operational practices, which has become one of the key points of contention in recent debates over “use boundaries” and export/market-entry controls.
从应用场景看，无人机可分为民用与军用。民用领域又可分为消费级与工业级，应用于农情监测、气象探测、航拍摄影、应急响应、巡检等场景；军用领域则可用于训练靶机、侦察、火力指引、打击等任务。需要强调的是，同一类民用平台在特定改装与使用方式下可能出现军用化用途，这也是近年来围绕无人机“用途边界”与“出口/准入管制”的争议焦点之一。
Looking back at the history of drones, the technological arc spans more than a century. Early drones emerged around the First World War and were primarily used as training targets. During the Cold War and the Vietnam War era, drones were gradually deployed for reconnaissance and target designation. Subsequently, under pressure from regional conflicts and air-defence threats, countries such as Israel accelerated the development of systematic drone capabilities, building experience in reconnaissance and tactical coordination.
回顾无人机的发展史，其技术演进跨度已逾百年。早期无人机在第一次世界大战时期出现，最初多用于训练靶机。进入冷战与越战时期，无人机逐步被用于侦察与目标指引等任务。此后，以色列等国家在地区冲突与防空威胁压力下加速推动无人机体系化发展，并在侦察与战术协同方面形成经验积累。
In the 21st century, both military and civilian drones have developed rapidly. Militarily, modern drones have increasingly taken on reconnaissance, targeting, and precision-strike roles; across multiple local conflicts, drones have become more tightly coupled with intelligence, communications, and firepower systems, shaping new operational patterns. Meanwhile, China’s civilian drone industry has expanded quickly. Companies such as DJI, founded in 2006, have had a material impact on global consumer drones through product experience, supply-chain efficiency, and scaled adoption. Market research institutions have for many years generally viewed DJI as holding a leading position in the global consumer drone segment (with specific shares varying by scope and year).
进入21世纪，无论军用还是民用无人机，都迎来快速发展。在军用方面，现代无人机逐步承担侦察、定位、精确打击等任务；在多场局部战争中，无人机与情报、通信、火力体系深度耦合，形成新的作战样式。与此同时，中国民用无人机产业也快速崛起。以2006年成立的大疆创新为代表的企业，对全球消费级无人机的产品体验、供应链效率与规模化普及产生了显著影响。市场研究机构长期以来普遍认为，大疆在全球消费级无人机领域占据领先份额（具体口径随统计范围与年份而变）。
It is worth noting that the logic of modern warfare is changing. Under prolonged confrontation and resource attrition pressures, battlefields increasingly exhibit characteristics of a “war of attrition”, which in turn influences drone platform choices and iterative directions. Using the Russia–Ukraine battlefield as an example, in the early stages, Ukraine more frequently deployed mid- to large-sized drones such as the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2. Such platforms offer a greater range and payload and can conduct reconnaissance and deliver guided munitions, but they also reveal drawbacks when facing integrated air-defence and electronic-warfare capabilities, including higher detectability, higher interception risk, and higher unit cost.
值得注意的是，现代战争的逻辑正在发生变化：在长期拉锯与资源消耗压力之下，战场越来越呈现“消耗战”特征，这也反过来影响了无人机平台的选择与迭代方向。以俄乌战场为例，冲突早期乌方较多使用土耳其制造的 Bayraktar TB2 等中大型无人机。此类平台具备更强航程与载荷能力，可执行侦察与投放制导弹药等任务，但在面对体系化防空与电子战能力时，也暴露出易被发现、易被拦截、成本较高等短板。
Against the backdrop of asymmetric economics between drone costs and interception costs, small, low-cost, expendable drones (including FPV systems) have been deployed at scale. These drones are compact and highly manoeuvrable, can navigate complex environments such as dense urban areas and rugged terrain, and may, under certain conditions, improve penetration probabilities. Their lower unit price also makes “quantity-based” strategies more economically sustainable. However, their disadvantages are also clear: they are often more vulnerable to electronic interference, and reliability and hit rates can be more sensitive to operating conditions. In recent years, Ukraine has also explored technical approaches such as fibre-optic links to mitigate the impact of electronic interference.
在成本与拦截效率不对称的背景下，小型、低成本、可消耗的无人机（包括第一视角 FPV 等）在战场上被大规模采用。这类无人机体型小、机动灵活，适应城市与复杂地形环境，在一定条件下可提高突防概率；同时其单价较低，使得“以量取胜”的策略在经济层面更可持续。另一方面，其劣势也较明显，例如更易受到电子干扰、可靠性与命中率受环境影响更大。乌方近年来也在探索以光纤等方式降低电磁干扰影响的技术路径。
According to information published by Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence on 24 December 2025, Ukraine stated that its armed forces were expected to receive approximately three million FPV drones in 2025, roughly 2.5 times the prior year.
据乌克兰国防部 2025年12月24日发布的信息，乌方表示2025年乌军预计将获得约300万架 FPV 无人机，约为上一年的2.5倍左右。
In a more symbolic case, Ukraine’s security agency carried out a drone operation codenamed “Spiderweb” in June 2025. Ukraine stated that 117 drones were used to strike multiple air bases inside Russia and published a high-end assessment of results; Although precise figures regarding specific military gains and economic losses may vary considerably depending on the source, such operations nevertheless exert a significant influence on public opinion and psychological impact, and will bolster Ukraine’s bargaining position during peace negotiations.
在更具象征意义的案例中，乌方安全机构曾在2025年6月实施代号为“Spiderweb（蛛网）”的无人机行动，乌方宣称使用117架无人机对俄境内多个空军基地实施打击，并公布了较高的战果口径；尽管具体战果与经济损失的精确数值可能随来源不同而有较大差异，但此类行动在舆论与心理层面仍具有显著影响，亦将增加乌克兰在和平谈判时候的底气。
In this broader context, U.S. policy orientation towards the drone industry is also shifting. Public information suggests that the U.S. Department of Defense / the Pentagon is promoting a drone capability that is larger in scale, lower in cost, and faster to iterate, with emphasis on industrialised supply and delivery capacity. Using “Drone Dominance” procurement as an example, public reporting has indicated a plan to purchase approximately 340,000 small drones over two years using a budget of around USD 1 billion, with staged selection, elimination based on performance, and iterative improvements to drive supply-side competition while targeting lower unit prices.
在上述背景下，美国对无人机产业的政策取向也在发生变化。公开信息显示，美国国防部/五角大楼正在推动更大规模、更低成本、可快速迭代的无人机体系建设，并强调以产业化方式提升供给能力。以“Drone Dominance”相关采购推进为例，公开报道提到，该计划拟在两年内使用约10亿美元预算采购约34万架小型无人机，并以分阶段筛选、末位淘汰、持续迭代的方式推进供给侧竞争，同时压降单机价格的目标。
On this basis, it is reasonable to infer that, within this policy and procurement framework, restrictions on market entry for foreign-manufactured drones and key components may simultaneously serve two objectives: security screening and strengthening domestic supply chains.
据此推断，在这一政策与采购框架下，对外国制造无人机及关键零部件的准入限制，可能同时服务于“安全审查”与“扶持本土供应链”两类目标。
In terms of market effects, if new market entry for foreign-manufactured drones is constrained, some U.S. domestic drone firms and upstream component suppliers may gain incremental opportunities in government procurement and selected commercial applications. At the same time, segments such as counter-UAS capability, electronic warfare, laser/kinetic interception, and command-and-control plus data analytics platforms may also accelerate under demand pull.
就市场影响而言，若外国制造无人机的新增准入受限，部分美国本土无人机企业及其上游零部件企业可能在政府采购与部分行业应用中获得增量机会；同时，反无人机（Counter-UAS）能力、电子战、激光/动能拦截，以及指挥控制与数据分析平台等环节，也可能在需求牵引下加速发展。
Overall, the world is accelerating into an era of dense drone deployment and usage. For companies, competitive outcomes will be determined not only by single technical metrics, but also by compliance credentials, supply-chain controllability, scalable delivery capability, validation pathways with government and industry customers, and the ability to integrate into larger system-of-systems command and operational networks. For capital markets, this theme may bring periodic opportunities and volatility, while also carrying risks tied to policy uncertainty, order-conversion timing, and cyclical valuation and sentiment drawdowns.
总之，全球正加速进入无人机密集应用的时代。对企业而言，决定胜负的不仅是单一技术指标，更包括：合规资质、供应链可控性、规模化交付能力、与政府/行业客户的验证路径，以及能否融入更大的体系化作战与指挥网络。对资本市场而言，相关主题可能带来阶段性机会与波动，但也伴随政策不确定性、订单兑现节奏、估值与情绪的周期性回撤风险。